The Installer's View Independent Solar Advisory
Educational guide · California 2026

Going Solar
in California

The math has changed. The pitch hasn't. If you're thinking about solar in California in 2026, here's what to understand before you let anyone hand you a proposal.

What's actually involved ↓

What going solar actually involves

Going solar in California isn't a single decision. It's a sequence of decisions, each with its own way of going wrong. Most homeowners arrive at the conversation thinking they're picking a system. By the end, they've made eight or ten consequential choices that affect how much they pay over the next twenty-five years — and many of them have been made without the homeowner realizing a choice was being made at all.

  1. Whether solar makes financial sense for your situation. This depends on your roof, your shading, your utility, your usage pattern, and current California policy. The answer for your neighbor isn't your answer. The answer in 2022 isn't the answer in 2026.
  2. How to pay for it. Cash, loan, lease, or PPA. Each has a different long-term cost structure. The salesperson typically presents the option that pays them best, framed as the option best for you. Sometimes those are the same. Often they aren't.
  3. Whether to include battery storage. Under NEM 3.0, solar without a battery is a meaningfully different financial proposition than it was three years ago.
  4. System size. Larger systems generate more revenue for the installer, and "future-proofing for an EV you might buy" is a common rationale for a larger system that may or may not match your plans.
  5. Equipment. Panel brand, inverter type, mounting, battery, monitoring. Often presented as "premium vs. standard" without explaining what difference it makes to you. Some differences matter substantially; others very little.
  6. The installer. The most consequential decision, and the one homeowners spend the least time on. People agonize over panel brand for months, then sign with whoever has the best-looking proposal — without checking license status, complaint history, or whether the company will exist in five years to honor the warranty.
  7. The contract. Where every decision above gets locked in. Contracts written by installers protect installers. What's not in the contract matters too — promises made verbally that never made it onto the page.
  8. Installation, inspection, and Permission to Operate. Mostly out of your hands, but a normal Bay Area install runs 2–4 months from signed contract to PTO. Significantly longer can signal problems.
The proposal that looks marginally better today may cost you tens of thousands of dollars more by the end.

What changed in California, and why it matters

If you've been thinking about solar for a while and only now getting serious, the California you're entering isn't the California of 2022. Three changes in particular reshape the math.

NEM 3.0 took effect April 15, 2023

California's net energy metering policy — the rules governing how much utilities pay you for excess electricity your panels send to the grid — was substantially revised. Under the prior policy (NEM 2.0), exported electricity earned roughly retail rates. Under NEM 3.0 (officially the Net Billing Tariff), exported electricity earns a fraction of that, averaged across the year.

The practical effect: a solar-only system without battery storage exports a lot of electricity at very low rates. A solar-plus-battery system can store electricity during low-rate hours and export during high-rate evening windows — meaningfully closing the gap with NEM 2.0 economics, but still not fully matching them. This is why current proposals typically include battery storage: under NEM 3.0, the battery is often what makes the financial case work.

Watch for this

If you're seeing a 30% federal tax credit on a 2026 proposal for a purchased system, the proposal is wrong. Section 25D expired December 31, 2025 for cash and loan purchases. A credit only still applies if the deal is structured as a lease or PPA — in which case the company that owns the system claims it (Section 48E), not you.

The lease and PPA pathway changes the question of who owns the system in ways homeowners often don't grasp. If the third-party owner claims the tax credit, you don't. If they sell the receivables to a financial entity, your contract may be transferred to a counterparty you've never heard of. We see this pattern repeatedly: homeowners who thought they bought a solar system actually entered a 25-year financing arrangement with a corporate entity that may or may not still exist in year ten.

The industry contracted sharply through 2024–2025

The transition to NEM 3.0 caused a steep drop in California residential solar volume. Many installers built business models on the higher volume and prices of the prior era; when those volumes collapsed, many installers did too. The bankruptcy wave isn't over. Picking an installer in 2026 means picking one likely to still be operating in 2030 to honor the workmanship warranty they're selling — a harder assessment than picking the best-looking proposal.

What to actually look at when a proposal lands

Most proposals are designed to be read favorably and signed quickly. They lead with monthly savings, payback period, and lifetime savings — three numbers built on assumptions that may or may not hold — and bury what matters into footnotes and pricing structures designed to obscure. If you're going to evaluate a proposal yourself, here's what to look at.

Cost per watt

Total system cost (before incentives) ÷ system size in watts. A straightforward residential install priced far above or suspiciously below regional norms deserves explanation either way.

The dealer fee

If financed through a third-party lender, there is almost certainly a markup built into the system cost to "buy down" your rate, then passed back to you. Rarely disclosed verbally. Almost always present in financed deals.

The escalator

Lease/PPA agreements typically include an annual payment increase that compounds over 25 years. If utility rates rise faster, you save; if not, you pay more for solar than you would have for grid power. "Rates always go up" is a forecast, not a guarantee.

Production estimate

Should be based on your specific roof's orientation, shading, and pitch. If two proposals for the same roof differ by more than ~10%, one is using more aggressive assumptions — ask which.

Production guarantee

"25-year guarantee" language varies dramatically. Some commit to meaningful remediation; others exclude so much they're functionally unenforceable. Read the actual contractual commitment, not the marketing claim.

Workmanship warranty

Equipment warranties come from manufacturers and survive installer bankruptcy. The workmanship warranty usually doesn't — if the installer fails in year three, a "25-year workmanship warranty" is generally worthless.

The UCC-1 lien

Financing may put a public lien notation against your home that can affect title at sale. Some homeowners only discover it when they try to sell. Whether one will be filed should be in the contract.

Early-termination terms

Lease/PPA buyout terms are often far higher than the remaining value of the agreement — structured to make exit expensive even when it makes sense. Check before you sign, not after.

When an independent review is worth it

Solar proposals fall into roughly three groups. Some are reasonable on their face — fair pricing, honest assumptions, appropriate equipment. Some are fine on most dimensions but have an issue or two worth addressing before signing — a high escalator, an oversized battery, an undisclosed dealer fee, an optimistic production estimate; these benefit from review because you can take the findings back to the installer and often get changes. And some have problems that aren't fixable by negotiating with the same installer at all.

The challenge: you don't know which group your proposal is in until someone has looked carefully. Self-review catches the obvious problems but usually misses the subtler issues that compound silently over the contract's life. Reading the checklist above and asking these questions yourself already puts you ahead of the typical homeowner.

Related questions

Should I add a battery? Probably, in California in 2026 — but the specifics depend on your usage, utility, and roof. More on battery storage decisions.

I already have solar and want to add more or add a battery. Common, and easy to get wrong if you're on NEM 2.0 and want to keep grandfathered status. The configuration matters.

My installer already went out of business. Different problem — start with what bankruptcy actually means for your system.

Have a proposal in front of you?

Independent proposal reviews are launching soon. Join the list to be first to know — and read the library in the meantime.